Why your league's average value vs ADP is probably negative
In 1,200 simulated dynasty drafts using FantasyCalc-anchored player values and format-aware Sleeper ADP, the league-average value vs ADP ran -1.4 pts after 8 rounds. Two thirds of teams finished the simulation negative. The market is roughly efficient at the position-fill margin, and the average drafter does slightly worse than the market.
- below -5 vs ADP9%
- -5 to -2 vs ADP28%
- -2 to 0 vs ADP30%
- 0 to +2 vs ADP21%
- +2 to +5 vs ADP9%
- above +5 vs ADP3%
Value vs ADP is asymmetric
Upside on bargains is bounded by ADP variance (a player can only fall so far). Downside on sharp locks is bounded only by your conviction (you can take a player as early as you want). Across a draft, the ceiling is structural; the floor is behavioral. Average drafters give the floor more rope than the ceiling.
Position-fill urgency drags the bank negative
Filling a hole at QB or RB before someone else does is rational. It is also, by definition, an early-of-ADP pick. Stack three urgent fills in a single draft and the bank starts negative even when each individual call is correct. The market mostly rewards patience; positional desperation is the most-priced-in error.
The positive minority is patient, not lucky
Teams that finish above zero are not the ones who hit on rookie sleepers; they are the ones who let bargains find them. Three fall-of-ADP picks at value 50+ each move a bank from -2 to +5 by themselves. The data clusters: positive teams are positive across multiple picks, not on one home run.
The simulation uses our own opponent-demand model; real leagues are noisier. 1,200 simulations is a finite sample, and the distribution likely widens as draft format changes (TE-premium SF leagues show a longer left tail than 1QB redraft). The negative drag in the average is not necessarily stable across years; it could compress as ADP variance tightens.
If your value vs ADP is positive at any stage of the draft, defend it. The Track Record surface shows your league percentile next to your bank; if you are above zero, you are likely already in the top third of your league. Resist position-fill panic that would force a sharp lock; the Decision card flags those cases with the lock-vs-coin-flip survival math.