Counterintuitive findings, model methodology.
Short pieces from inside the model. Each one starts with a number that should bother you.
- 2026-05-08
When does an aging-cliff RB actually cliff?
Adrian Peterson returned 96% of his ADP value at age 31. Le'Veon Bell returned 12% at age 27. The "RB cliff at 30" is the most-repeated, least-useful rule of thumb in dynasty, and it earns that title by averaging two completely different aging curves into one rounded year.
agingRBdynastyinflection - 2026-05-08Updated 2026-05-26
Why your league's average value vs ADP is probably negative
In 1,200 simulated dynasty drafts using FantasyCalc-anchored player values and format-aware Sleeper ADP, the league-average value vs ADP ran -1.4 pts after 8 rounds. Two thirds of teams finished the simulation negative. The market is roughly efficient at the position-fill margin, and the average drafter does slightly worse than the market.
vsADPmethodologydynasty - 2026-05-08
What rookie ADP actually measures (and what it doesn't)
Jadarian Price's ADP showed up as 82 in a dynasty superflex format and 143 in a 1QB redraft format. Same player, same week, same Sleeper. The 61-pick gap is not a bug. It is what ADP actually measures: where players go IN A FORMAT.
ADPvariantsmethodologyrookies